Current El Niño likely to affect food security in several African countries
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (PANA) – Heads of international organisations have urged countries to balance short-term urgent interventions with longer-term resilience efforts as they respond to the worsening of the food and nutrition security crisis.
According to the latest update by the World Bank, domestic food price inflation remains high. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 57.9% of low-income countries, 86.4% of lower-middle-income countries, and 62% of upper-middle-income countries and many experiencing double-digit inflation.
In addition, 67.3% of high-income countries are experiencing high food price inflation. The most-affected countries are in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia. In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 78% of 163 countries.
In the update on Monday, the World Bank said that the agricultural and export price indices each closed 2% lower, and the cereal price index closed 1% lower than at the last update on September 28, 2023.
Wheat prices, which declined by 5%, were the primary driver of the decline in the cereal price index; rice prices were 1% lower, and maize prices were 1% higher than at the last update. On a year-on-year basis, maize and wheat prices were 29% and 35% lower, respectively, whereas rice prices have continued their rising trend since May and were 41% higher. Maize prices were 6% lower than in 2021, wheat prices 15% lower, while rice prices were 23% higher.
The October 2023 edition of the AMIS Market Monitor highlights developments in commodity markets, including surging rice prices following India's ban on non-basmati rice exports in July 2023. This has raised concerns that other countries such as Myanmar and the Philippines might also impose trade restrictions.
The Market Monitor also discusses the tightening of financial policies by central banks worldwide to combat inflation which have significant implications for global grain markets. Rising interest rates restrict credit access for market participants, increasing borrowing costs for farmers and grain traders, which can limit long-term production growth and increase grain storage expenses.
Furthermore, rising interest rates reduce liquidity in financial markets, which can prompt investment fund sell-offs and decrease grain prices. Higher interest rates can also increase currency values, increasing the cost of grain imports for low-income food-deficit countries. These high interest rates are expected to persist, raising concerns about their continued effects on agricultural markets and global food security.
The International Food Research Policy Institute highlights factors projected to contribute to an increase in rice prices over the next few months. Foremost is India’s decision on July 20, 2023, to ban all exports of non-basmati rice.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network expects that approximately 100 million people worldwide will need food assistance through early 2024, partly because of the ongoing strong El Niño event. Lower-than-average rainfall increases drought risks and the price of food, while higher-than-average rainfall can lead to flooding in low-lying areas, which can decrease market access for agricultural goods and contribute to water, sanitation, and hygiene challenges.
The current El Niño, comparable with the six strongest events on the historical record, is anticipated to affect food security more in some regions/country, such as Southern Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, East Africa, West Africa, and Afghanistan than in others.
In May 2022, the World Bank made a commitment of making available $30 billion over a period of 15 months to tackle the crisis, which it said it has surpassed.
The World Bank has scaled up its food and nutrition security response, to now making $45 billion available through a combination of $22 billion in new lending and $23 billion from existing portfolio.
“Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture,” the Bank said.
The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 335 million people, equivalent to 44% of the number of undernourished people. Around 53% of the beneficiaries are women – they are disproportionately more affected by the crisis.
Some examples include:
The $766 million West Africa Food Systems Resilience Program is working to increase preparedness against food insecurity and improve the resilience of food systems in West Africa. The program is increasing digital advisory services for agriculture and food crisis prevention and management, boosting adaption capacity of agriculture system actors, and investing in regional food market integration and trade to increase food security. An additional $345 million is currently under preparation for Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.
A $315 million loan to support Chad, Ghana and Sierra Leone to increase their preparedness against food insecurity and to improve the resilience of their food systems.
A $500 million Emergency Food Security and Resilience Support Project to bolster Egypt's efforts to ensure that poor and vulnerable households have uninterrupted access to bread, help strengthen the country's resilience to food crises, and support to reforms that will help improve nutritional outcomes.
A $130 million loan for Tunisia, seeking to lessen the impact of the Ukraine war by financing vital soft wheat imports and providing emergency support to cover barley imports for dairy production and seeds for smallholder farmers for the upcoming planting season.
The $2.3 billion Food Systems Resilience Programme for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. The programme will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.
-0- PANA AR/MA 17Oct2023
